Will Ian Machado Garry Get a Welterweight Title Shot in 2026?

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, the site of many a UFC megafight - Unsplash

The UFC is preparing for a blockbuster year in 2026 with a slew of huge fights already announced. Britain's Paddy Pimblett is poised for a maiden title challenge as he faces off against American highlight reel Justin Gathje for the interim lightweight title, while Alexander Volkanovski will make yet another defence of his featherweight title against Diego Lopes. But what of the fighters who don't currently have concrete title challenges etched into their immediate future?

There are plenty of fighters on the UFC roster who will feel deserving of a title shot, not in the future, but right now. Ian Machado Garry, however, is a superstar who will consider themselves at the front of the queue.

Stock Rising Even in Defeat

When Ian Machado Garry took that Shavkat Rakhmonov fight on short notice at UFC 310 in December 2024, he was either incredibly brave or borderline reckless. Belal Muhammad pulled out of his clash with the fearsome Kazakh, citing an injury, and the UFC needed a replacement for the number-one contender bout. Garry said yes, knowing full well he was putting his unbeaten record on the line, and he was doing so by walking into a nightmare matchup with minimal prep against the most feared fighter in the welterweight division.

The Irishman ultimately lost that clash, but he performed far better than anyone had expected prefight, causing his stock to rise further even in defeat. The loss of course stung, but Garry didn't sulk or take six months off to "reset." He came back in April 2025 and fought Carlos Prates—yes, the same Prates who has recently knocked out Geoff Neal and Leon Edwards—staying composed when lesser fighters would've crumbled, and got his hand raised.

The Bounce Back

That alone would've been a solid bounce-back. But then he went and did something legitimately impressive: he outpointed former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad over three rounds at UFC Qatar in November, winning a controversial, foul-marred scrap that had "statement victory" written all over it.

The scorecards read 30-27, 30-27, 29-28—not close on paper, even if the fight itself felt like a knife fight in a phone booth. Multiple eye pokes. Heated exchanges. The kind of ugly, grinding battle that reveals character more than technique. And Garry won it, beating the guy who was supposed to fight Shavkat at UFC 310 before pulling out and creating the opening in the first place. There's poetic justice in that.

What the Bookies Say

After UFC 310, bookmakers had Garry anywhere from +1200 to +1800 to win a welterweight title in 2026. That first professional loss pushed back his perceived title trajectory in the eyes of oddsmakers. But now, thirteen months later, he's sitting at closer to +450 after dismantling Prates and outpointing the former champ.

Anyone holding those long-shot tickets from December 2024 is sitting on serious value—the kind of position that the hedge calculator at Thunderpick allows you to maximize to full effect. The calculator runs the numbers so that you can work out the exact amount of money you would need to bet against Garry winning a title in 2026 to guarantee a profit. But first, he needs to gun for that title shot, and if you ask anyone, his victory over Muhammad should put him next in line for a shot at Islam Makhachev's throne.

The Irish star now sits at 17-1, with his only loss coming against an undefeated killer who had a full camp while Garry took the fight on days' notice. He's publicly campaigned for a shot at Makhachev, he's got name recognition, a two-fight streak over quality opposition, and the kind of confidence that plays well in UFC promotional material.

The welterweight division desperately needs fresh blood at the top—Rakhmonov's dealing with knee issues that required surgery, and most of the other top names have already had their shots or rematches. Garry's 28 years old, he's learned from the one fight he lost, and he's positioned himself as the guy you can't ignore anymore. Let's face it, who in the top five is more deserving of a shot?

The Fearsome Champion

Securing a title shot and winning the championship are two very different things, especially when the champion is Islam Makhachev. The Dagestani wrestling ace cleared out the lightweight division, finishing both Charles Oliveira and Alexander Volkanovski as he followed in coach and friend Khabib Nurmagomedov's footsteps at 155 pounds. Then, he did something that his legendary boss never did, moved up in weight and claimed a second title.

Makhachev vacated his lightweight strap for a shot at welterweight king Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 last November. And with the pressure on, the Russian proved that the additional weight was no problem whatsoever. Makhachev dominated JDM in Madison Square Garden, rag-dolling the Aussie for five straight rounds to secure the unanimous decision win and become a two-weight world champion. Whoever he faces next will be a massive underdog, Garry included.