Will Makhachev Successfully Defend His Title at UFC 311?

While millions of people worldwide will be overindulging over the festive period, two Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) greats will be swapping opening presents for intense workouts and sparring sessions. Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, two of UFC's best lightweights, are preparing for a title clash at UFC 311 on January 18, and everything points to this clash being an all-time classic.

The pair last faced off in the octagon at UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik in April 2019 in Saint Petersburg, Russia. The judges settled the bout on that occasion, with Makhachev emerging victorious by unanimous decision. It was a baptism of fire for Tsarukyan, who was making his UFC debut. Despite the loss, Tsarukyan earned a Fight of the Night bonus after giving a good account of himself; many consider this to have been Makhachev's toughest test.

Makhachev is a True UFC Champion

Makhachev's all-round game has come on in leaps and bounds since that fight. After defeating Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 and winning the UFC Lightweight Championship, Makhachev has defended his title three times against top opposition. When you look at the Russian's recent performances, it is easy to see why every UFC betting app has him as an overwhelming favorite to defend his title again successfully.

At UFC 284, Makhachev beat Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision in what was the Fight of the Night and Fight of the Year. The rematch at UFC 294 saw Makhachev knockout Volkanovski and earn the Performance of the Night bonus. Last time out, at UFC 302 in June 2024, Makhachev forced a fifth-round submission in an incredible fight against Dustin Poirier. Now, Tsarukyan is tasked with stopping the UFC's number one pound-for-pound athlete.

Although Makhachev is a clear favorite, he should not underestimate Tsarukyan. If Makhachev goes into this fight anything other than 100% prepared and focused, he will find himself handing over his coveted belt. Tsarukyan is a talented fighter with a 22-3 record and is determined to make a name for himself on the biggest stage.

Tsarukyan is More Than Just a Plucky Contender

Tsarukyan has only lost once since losing on his debut to Makhachev. Mateusz Gamrot beat him by unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot in June 2022. Since then, Tsarukyan has won four consecutive fights, including a split decision victory over Charles Oliviera at UFC 300 in April 2024.

However, that fight was not without controversy. On his way to the octagon at UFC 300, Tsarukyan appeared to throw a punch at a fan. The Nevada Athletic Commission fined Tsarukyan $25,000 and banned him from competition until January 12, 2025; his fight against Makhachev is six days later.

Don't let that controversy cloud your judgment of Tsarukyan because he has earned his title shot. He knocked out Beneil Dariush in the fight before his Oliviera victory, and it is clear he knows his way around the octagon.

The Tale of the Tape and the Numbers

Makhachev has a three-inch height advantage over the challenger but has a two-inch reach disadvantage. However, Makhachev has a one-inch leg advantage. Most of that will count for very little once the fighters touch gloves and the battle commences. Striking accuracy and takedown defense, two areas where the defending champion holds all the cards, will decide this encounter.

Makhachev is one of the UFC's most accurate strikers. During his career, the Russian has landed 60% of his significant strikes compared to the 49% accuracy of Tsarukyan. You can see that Makhachev is more selective with his strikes, landing 2.65 per minute compared to 3.79 of Tsarukyan.

Any fighter will attest that not getting hit is as important as landing blows, and the defending champion has a better significant strike defense rate. Makhachev defends against significant blows 61% of the time, while Tsarukyan trails with only 54%.

Regarding takedowns, Makhachev has 54% accuracy compared to Tsarukyan's 37%, while Makhachev's takedown defense is an impressive 91% compared to his Georgian opponent's 75%. Remarkably, neither fighter has tapped out of a mixed martial arts fight, and we do not see that happening at UFC 311.

What Happened in the Previous Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Fight?

When these athletes last fought in April 2019, Makhachev was an established UFC fighter while Tsarukyan was making his debut with the promotion. The pair traded strikes, including head kick attempts, and mixed it up with wrestling and grappling. Tsarukyan almost deployed a kimura on Makhachev but couldn't quite execute it. If he had, the fight's outcome could have been entirely different.

The fast-paced 15-minute fight was a spectacle, earning both men the Fight of the Night bonus. Makhachev landed 47 of 53 total strikes and went four for nine in takedown attempts while enjoying 6:06 of control time. Tsarukyan landed 60 of his 90 strikes, managed one takedown from 12 attempts, and controlled the fight for 1:47. Those figures resulted in the judges voting 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 in favor of Makhachev, handing him another UFC victory.

What is the Likely Outcome of UFC 311

Bookmakers rarely make incorrect predictions, so the most likely outcome is a Makhachev victory and a fourth UFC Lightweight Championship defense. The defen

Both fighters can finish the fight early, as evidenced by their 18 first-round stoppages. However, Makhachev and Tsarukyan are intelligent fighters who will not risk too much in the early stages unless an opportunity arises. Therefore, the most likely outcome is for the fight to go the distance and Makhachev to emerge victoriously with his treasured championship belt in tow. Roll on January 18, when we get to see this fight take place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.