UFC Champions at the End of 2026 - What Do the Markets Say?

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity across the US in recent years, particularly when it comes to sports, and the world of MMA has been no exception. Top markets like Kalshi and Polymarket - sponsor of the UFC - bring in billions of dollars in monthly trades, despite having been essentially unknown companies just a few years ago.

Part of their appeal is that they quantify the wisdom of the crowds. A prediction market contract's probability is not based on an expert oddsmaker's opinion influenced by market money - it is purely the percentage of market money that is on either side. This shows you exactly what the market thinks, and it transparently changes as traders buy and sell shares in the different outcomes.

So, what do the prediction markets have to say about the UFC and the chances of the various fighters going forward?

Prediction Markets Have Changed the Game for UFC

If you're into watching the UFC, you've likely seen a Polymarket logo and even live market odds on broadcasts or at live events. Competitor Kalshi has sponsored Nate Diaz and has extensively focused on broad MMA and UFC markets.

Of course prediction markets aren't without their controversy. Primarily due to their similarity to betting and gambling despite being regulated federally as financial products.

Sportsbook Review and the guide here to Kalshi promo codes is a good example of these parallels. Such sites are used, as you might think, to read reviews of sportsbooks, but they now also rate prediction markets. Customers look to these experts to analyze and compare prediction markets across their welcome offers and promotions, but also depth of markets, payment methods and other features.

Whether or not you consider them to be betting, the fact is prediction markets are already big business in the MMA world and have changed the way people put money down on predicting results.

The biggest way, is that instead of basically only being able to bet on the results individual match ups, now prediction markets open up long-term futures markets. For example you can put money on your matchup predictions, or who you think will be champion in the various divisions and the end of 2026 and even 2027. So, let's look into those for some early predictions about the months ahead.

Who Are the Biggest Favorites Across Divisions?

The clear favorites to be holding a belt at the end of 2026, according to these markets that are supposed to utilize the wisdom of the crowds, are Justin Gaethje at lightweight and Islam Makhachev at welterweight.

Gaethje is coming off a dominant 2026 in which he dismantled Paddy Pimblett and delivered a shock win over Ilia Topuria at the White House UFC event in June to take the title. He has said he won't fight again this year, and may retire in 2027.

For those reasons the American legend is currently rated by Kalshi traders as 92% likely to hold the Lightweight belt on December 31, 2026. The nearest contender is Arman Tsarukyan at 6%.

Interestingly, despite ongoing rumors about a rematch fight with Topuria swirling over the past week, the market's opinion on Gaethje holding onto the belt at the end of the year has barely changed. Suggesting they think it's unlikely to happen this year, or maybe at all.

As for Islam Makhachev, he has the longest winning streak in UFC history and has only fought a few times a year since 2024. With one fight just past in August, in which he defeated Ian Garry by unanimous decision, Makhachev seems unlikely to have any immediate challengers in his sights. He currently sits at 87% to be champ at the end of 2026 as rated by Kalshi traders, with the nearest contender being Carlos Prates at 13%.

Underdogs and Close-Call Contenders

One interesting opinion from Kalshi traders is that Tom Aspinall will still be the heavyweight title holder at the end of 2026. Aspinall hasn't fought for over a year since his no-contest bout with Ciryl Gane in which many accused the Frenchman Gane of landing a savage eye poke.

The UFC took no action, however Aspinall was out for months and had several eye surgeries. He is now back in full training and apparently ready to rematch interim holder Gane, although whether that match will be in 2026 remains uncertain.

It seems that Kalshi traders agree, with the market rating the Englishman Aspinall as 53% likely to hold the UFC Heavyweight Title at the end of the year.

An Englishman is also another interesting underdog. Despite being a much-hyped fan favorite for a few years now, Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett is rated by the market as having less than 1% chance to be the lightweight champ at the end of 2026. After a crushing loss to Gaethje, Pimblett rebounded in July by dispatching Benoit St Denis with an innovative and dominant submission after just 56 seconds of round one.

However, with Gaethje unlikely to fight in 2026 and potentially looking to rematch with Topuria before retiring, it seems few are rating Paddy's chances of getting back into the top contender spots this year. Interestingly though, Pimblett is considered the favorite (at 10%) to be lightweight champ at the end of 2027.