Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje UFC 291 Salt Lake City Utah Fight Video Full HD Free Stream Replay Part A

Lightweights Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier square off for the second time in the UFC 291 main event on Saturday night in Salt Lake City, putting the BMF's belt in jeopardy.

In their first encounter, a back-and-forth slobber match in Arizona in 2018, Poirier was knocked out in the fourth round.

With losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira on their respective records, both have won interim gold since the first bout and have gone 0– 2 in uncontested title fights.

With neither having faced Islam Makhachev, who is scheduled to face Oliveira for the second time at UFC 294 in October, either fighter hopes to reclaim title contention with a victory on Saturday.

I'll outline my analysis and projections for the UFC 291 main event on Saturday( ESPN+ PPV, with main-event walkouts at roughly 11:55 p.m. ET) below and use those details to place bets on the Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje rematch.

The first fight featured brutal leg kicks by Gaethje and crisper boxing by Poirer.

Poirier was able to out-strike Gaethje in the pocket( 142- 56 advantage on head strikes, 314 to 143 on attempts) thanks to his two-inch reach advantage and faster and more technical hands.

Gaethje limited Poirier's movement by hammering him from the outside with his powerful kicks( 50 to 11 on leg kick landings, 57 to 11, on attempts). And before being knocked out, he appeared to be on the verge of winning the fight with those leg kicks.

Since the first fight, Poirier's offensive kicking game has gotten better. With calf kicks, he changed the course of the second Conor McGregor fight.

But in the interim, Gaethje's boxing has also leveled off. It's possible that his most recent performance against Rafael Fiziev( 81– 38 on head strikes) was the best his hands have ever looked.

Poirier throws more volume, but Gaetje lands at a higher percentage( 50% to 60%), primarily because of his leg kicks, which are significantly more accurate than head strikes. Their defensive striking stats are relatively similar( 54% and 53%, respectively.

I don't anticipate seeing many, if any, grappling in this conflict. Gaethje, a skilled counter wrestler, blocked Poirier's five takedown attempts in the opening match.

Poirier could have a significant grappling advantage if the fight does hit the mat, which partially justifies his favoritism, so I would anticipate him looking for level changes once more. Gaetje's takedown defense( 75%), however, has proven to be more than adequate against wrestlers who are not Dagestani.

A protracted striking match should be fiercely competitive, and I anticipate a similar dance between Justin's kicking game and Dustins' boxing.

This fight should ultimately go to whichever fighter has better cardio down the stretch, fighting at 4, 000 feet of elevation, like many of the fights on this Salt Like City card.

I might give Poirier the upper hand at sea level. Gaethje, however, resides and trains in Colorado, and the thin air in Utah may give him the upper hand in this rematch.