UFC Fight Night 128 Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
- from Bleacher Report on Apr 19, 2018
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UFC Fight Night 128 is upon us. Going down almost entirely on FS1, the event will take place Saturday at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
After a stellar UFC on Fox 29 card last weekend, fans can be forgiven if they're still a bit hungover. This card may not promise as much excitement on paper, but the voluminous six-fight main card contains a few gems.
The main event pits Brazilian super-striker Edson Barboza against American wrestle-boxer Kevin Lee. At five and six, respectively, in the official UFC lightweight rankings, the winner is poised to enter a very crowded title picture at 155 pounds.
The co-main event could be a cracker as well, with former champ Frankie Edgar taking on the aggression-based skill set of Cub Swanson.
Here now to break it all down is our crack team of fighter pickers. Matthew Ryder. Nathan McCarter. Steven Rondina. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
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Matthew Ryder
True story: Jim Miller and I once spoke in an elevator about Lyoto Machida being a legitimate ninja. Super nice guy, real good at fighting. I’m also a big Dan Hooker mark—I think he’s got some potential based solely on his poise for someone at his level, which you almost never see. I’ll be happy with the outcome either way, but I’ll take Miller based on experience against better competition.
Miller, submission, Rd. 3
Nathan McCarter
Give me the younger cat in the jungle. Miller still has some quality skills to bring into the cage, but there is no doubt he's on the downside of his career. Hooker would have likely been a relatively easy win for Miller four years ago, but it's 2018. Hooker will out-point the old dog.
Hooker, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
MMA is a sport where the young are meant to eat the old. That isn't always the case, obviously, but it will be the case here as Hooker will have little trouble out-pacing and out-working Miller en route to a lopsided unanimous decision.
Hooker, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
According to OddsShark, Miller is a sizable underdog here at +300. Hooker has an unassuming look about him, but don't let that fool you. He's well-rounded can finish you anywhere (see his knockout of Ross Pearson, which he followed by submitting Marc Diakiese). Miller is tough as nails by the 34-year-old is aging in fighter years, with 40 fights (the last three of them losses) under his belt. I'd love to pull the trigger on the underdog but the young buck is on too much of a roll.
Hooker, TKO, Rd. 2
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Ryder
A good matchup of prospects who could use a win to get up into talks of title contention. Brett Johns is a bit more unsung, while Aljamain Sterling is a guy we’ve all been waiting on to break through. Few will say he did it by beating Johns, but he will get a win and get that upward momentum
Sterling, unanimous decision
McCarter
Remember when Sterling was the hot prospect and projected to be a title contender? We have not seen that come to light. Even still, this is a fight he should win. The question is can he win in style? I say yes.
Sterling, submission, Rd. 2
Rondina
Despite everything, I still look at Sterling as a potential top talent. Johns is good, and is near and dear to my heart after executing a calf-slicer in his last fight, but he just doesn't have the ceiling Aljo does.
Sterling, unanimous decision
Harris
This is a fun matchup of styles. Neither man is a primary striker; they both want it on the ground. The question will be whether Johns can get close enough to the rangier Sterling to land a takedown and wrest control of the action. Johns never seems to get tired, and his game has evolved since his days of being strictly a grinder. The unsung Welshman surprises people once again.
Johns, unanimous decision
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Ryder
This is a great piece of FS1 matchmaking. Two guys who are pretty decent and need a fight, so you throw ‘em on FS1 in the middle of the damn night and see who comes out on top. Let’s say it’s Thiago Santos.
Santos, KO, Rd. 1
McCarter
Well, this will be a fight that is quickly forgot unless Santos can catch David Branch. Branch's style is not fan-friendly and this will be the fight where you can grab a few snacks. I'll say Branch controls Santos against the fence allowing him to get to a decision, but all meaningful offense will come from the Brazilian. It'll be just enough to get by.
Santos, unanimous decision
Rondina
It's still tough to get a read on how Branch stacks up against the wider UFC middleweight division following his long, successful run in WSOF. Santos will be the test that gives us a definite read and while he's certainly not an easy test, I'm expecting Branch to pass.
Branch, unanimous decision
Harris
For years now, Branch has been screaming at anyone who will listen that he needs and deserves respect. Here's another chance to grab some. It's a striker-grappler matchup on general, but Branch's standup has come a long way as a complement to his jiu-jitsu black belt. Santos' wrestling and grappling are nonexistent beyond his persistent struggle to keep himself vertical so he can play his supremely dangerous kickboxing. Branch should smother Santos for a solid, if boring, victory.
Branch, unanimous decision
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Ryder
Chase Sherman’s a bit more experienced in the UFC, Justin Willis has been enjoying a little bit of success in his recent bouts. Feels like one the promotion put together to see who can land some bungalows first to get a splash of violence on the card before the big names come out. I’ve got Willis.
Willis, KO, Rd. 1
McCarter
Heavyweight MMA can be ugly and this will probably fall in that category. Give me... Willis? Sure. Throwing darts at a board may be the most effective way to pick this contest.
Willis, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Coin flip here with two flawed heavyweights that can punch hard. Tails. Willis.
Willis, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
We have some beefy guys in the cage for this one, and neither has what you'd call a deep skill set. Sherman and Willis have 17 pro wins between them—14 came by knockout. This is a step up in competition for Willis, and he doesn't have the deepest gas tank. Sherman bides his time and pulls the upset.
Sherman, TKO, Rd. 3
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Ryder
There’s plenty of concern over Frankie Edgar getting back in there after Brian Ortega stretched him last month, but for the sport’s collective fretting it doesn’t appear anyone was super keen to talk him out of taking this fight. That’s probably because, even if he’s diminished after a long and brutal career and/or after Ortega rattled his cage, he’s just a bad matchup for Swanson. Frankie’s back in the win column come Saturday.
Edgar, unanimous decision
McCarter
Now we hit the real meat & potatoes of the fight card. This is such a fantastic matchup. Both are on the backend of their careers looking for one last-ditch effort to get a title shot. Edgar has more tools to complete that mission, but returning rather quickly from his last bout makes me nervouce. Still, I like his ability to get Swanson to the mat repeatedly in a 15-minute battle.
Edgar, unanimous decision
Rondina
This one won't be as lopsided as their first bout...but it won't be too far off, either. Look for Edgar to take this one to the ground and enjoy heavy top control for the majority of the fight en route to a clean decision.
Edgar, unanimous decision
Harris
Few fighters have a more complicated relationship with the MMA public than Frankie Edgar. Many fans believe he walks on water, pointing to his dominance despite being undersized, his finishes of guys like Yair Rodriguez, his recent willingess to essentially relinquish his claim to a title fight when he accepted (and lost) that bout with Ortega. Many others view his style as conservative and unexciting to watch, viewing his toughness as an overblown myth. In this match, Swanson will tag Edgar a few times, then display improved grappling and wrestling when Edgar shoots for takedowns. Swanson avenges his loss in the first contest.
Swanson, unanimous decision
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Ryder
Kevin Lee straight up needs this win. Edson Barboza is underappreciated as a contender, and beating him has almost been a rite of passage for the lightweight elite over the years. He only loses against the very best, and Lee fancies himself that, so he can’t lose here. Unfortunately for him, due to Barboza’s striking advantage and highly capable takedown defense, I believe he will.
Barboza, unanimous decision
McCarter
Barboza is the fighter that produces more excitement, but this bout is stylistically made for Lee. Lee's grappling should carry him through the early rounds where Barboza will be most dangerous, and then it'll allow him to establish some dominance in the back-half of the fight. There's where Lee can grind out a decision.
Lee, unanimous decision
Rondina
Barboza's takedown defense is much better than people give him credit for, but it won't be enough against Lee. Lee will be hungrier, more physical, and will get the takedowns necessary to take the W.
Lee, unanimous decision
Harris
I'm going echo what some of my dudes have already said. Barboza's takedown defense is stellar, and it is the key here. If Lee can't get those, he's not exactly a sitting duck on the feet, but Barboza is as skilled a striker as there is on the UFC roster today.
Barboza, TKO, Rd. 2