UFC Fight Night 127 breakdown: Betting advice, possible prop bets and fantasy studs

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 127’s top bouts. Today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.

UFC Fight Night 127 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The entire card streams live on UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC-London main-event breakdown: Can Alexander Volkov get Fabricio Werdum to fight his fight?
• UFC-London co-main event breakdown: What’s changed since first Manuwa-Blachowicz encounter?
• UFC-London main-card breakdown: Leon Edwards looking for home success

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (March 16, 2018).

Dan’s plays

Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites)::

• Hakeem Dawodu -325
• Paul Craig/Magomed Ankalaev “won’t go the distance” -245

Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks (within a reasonable price range) that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.

For my first recommendation, I elected to go with promotional newcomer Hakeem Dawodu (-325).

Dawodu (7-0-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), faces Daniel Henry, a tough Scottish fighter who made his UFC debut last year. Henry (11-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC), is a long, durable and well-rounded fighter, but he also seems to have a much more hittable style overall. Against a heavily accoladed (and heavy-handed) striker like Dawodu, this could be a recipe for disaster.

Don’t get me wrong: We saw in Henry’s last fight that he has the durability and heart to hold on, as well as the skills to turn things around. However, if the Scottish fighter cannot find an opportunistic submission in a scramble or place the perfect shot, then I see the speed of Dawodu being too much.

The Canadian fighter is dangerous but measured, keeping his feet beneath him to deliver power at all times. He also appears to have a solid base within the clinch that he works from, which I see increasing his chances of controlling this fight. Dawodu’s price is continuing to grow, but I still feel he’s within range if you’re trying to put something together.

For my second selection, I ended up substituting a prop piece given the limited amount of likable chalk; I elected to go with Paul Craig/Magomed Ankalaev “won’t go the distance” (-245).

Craig (9-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is another Scottish fighter who is as tough as he is likable, but I believe that he may be one of the more outmatched fighters on paper. Ankalaev (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC), is an unheralded member of the Akhmat Fight Team that only seems to be beginning to crack the surface.

Hailing from Makhachkala, a region in Dagestan rich in Wushu Sanda, Ankalaev appears to be more than capable of striking from either stance, putting combinations together when feeling in stride. Craig is deceptively agile and athletic, and can more than handle himself at range. However, the Scotsman does have a tendency to throw kicks naked, something that could cost him huge against the catch-kick-countering style that Sanda offers.

More importantly, caught kicks will allow an opportunity for Ankalaev to get Craig to the mat. Not only is it a place where the Dagestani fighter is most dangerous, but it is also an area where Craig has ran into trouble previously. Considering that Ankalaev has been bet upwards of -600, I believe that playing the angle of this fight not crossing the finish line carries sizable value given the price differential and coverage.

Props worth looking at:

• Dmitry Sosnovskiy “Inside the distance” (line yet to be released)

Summary:

With the oddsmakers seemingly taking longer and longer to release lines for particular cards, there is currently a limited selection of props to choose from. Rather than force a play on an existing line, I’ll instead share a prop that I’ll be looking at playing once it drops.

With that stated, I will be watching to see what kind of odds Dmirty Sosnovskiy will get to win inside the distance.

Sosnovskiy (10-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC), faces Mark Godbeer, a tough Englishman who’s looking to bounce back in front of his countrymen.

Godbeer (13-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC), is a well-rounded heavyweight who has serviceable skills in most areas. His wrestling, however, has been a weak point that I see potentially taxing him here. Sosnovskiy appears to be a strong wrestler (especially from the body lock) and works well once getting topside. He’s a solid passer and has a knack for finding his way to/finishing from the mount position.

There is not much striking footage on Sosnovskiy and he hasn’t fought since 2015, but Russian was scheduled to face Justin Ledet twice, a fighter whose skill set surely made Sosnovskiy address that part of his game. Sosnovskiy has also spent ample time training at American Top Team during his time between fights, another factor that I suspect will affect him positively.

Given the oddsmakers current lining of this fight, I suspect that a Sosnovskiy “inside the distance” line to open somewhere between -110 and -150, and will likely inflate quickly from there. I you feel confident to enough to pull the trigger on any late-dropping lines, then I suggest keeping an eye out for this one.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

• John Phillips vs. Charles Byrd
• Danny Roberts vs. Oliver Enkamp
• Jan Blachowicz vs. Jimi Manuwa
• Steven Ray vs. Kajan Johnson