It was the biggest upset of 2015, Holly Holm's knockout of Ronda Rousey sent shock waves through the MMA universe. And as the calendar is set to turn to 2016, the UFC is getting set for the rematch
The date has been reserved, UFC 200 on July 9. I just happen to think that rushing this rematch is leaving dollars on the table and not giving fans the best rematch possible.
UFC President Dana White told ESPN radio show Mike & Mike (via WrestlingInc.com), “I think that if we didn't make the rematch, me, and Lorenzo (Fertitta, UFC CEO) should probably lose our promoters' license.” It's a strong statement that the rematch is such big business that they have to capitalize on it immediately. Undoubtedly, it is a monster rematch, and there would be a big risk in waiting to pull the trigger—but it's a risk that I believe the UFC should take.
The risk is obvious: either Holm or Rousey could lose before the rematch happening. However, given the skills of both, and their prospective opponents, that is a minuscule risk.
@lukethemanmurph @yay_yee When you have a massive fight, you don’t risk it. You just don’t.
— Jeremy Botter (@jeremybotter) December 11, 2015
Fans boo the idea of a McGregor-Aldo rematch when Aldo suggests it, but the idea isn't much worse than the Holm-Rousey rematch. Both bad.
— Robert Sargent (@MMARising) December 13, 2015
It's also a risk that the UFC bantamweight champion, Holm, sounds like she would be willing to take. She wants to defend her belt sooner rather than later, and the top contender waiting in the wings is No. 2-ranked Miesha Tate.
Tate is a credible challenger with the skills to topple Holm, but the champion should be a solid favorite in that fight. There is little Tate can do that Holm hasn't already proved to be able to stop in a fight, and her striking advantage is immense. For the UFC, following Holm's upset of Rousey, this title tilt should pull in solid pay-per-view numbers to continue to make Holm a bigger star.
So, what does the UFC do with Rousey?
By virtue of waiting for this monumental rematch, the UFC give Rousey time to improve. She was not caught like Jose Aldo against Conor McGregor. She was destroyed. She was made to look so inferior that no fight fan could realistically think that an immediate rematch would be competitive. Rousey had no answer for Holm's footwork at UFC 193.
After taking time off and filming a couple of movies, would one camp be enough to solve all the problems that surface in the Octagon that night? Highly unlikely.
Rousey's return to the cage will be a big deal no matter who she squares off against inside the Octagon. So why would the UFC not capitalize on it and make it an event of itself? She would not have to fight a top-five ranked contender to draw at the box office. Her return could be against anyone the UFC believes is the safest matchup possible, and people will tune in to see Rousey return.
There's intrigue into how she will look coming back off the loss, and it could be built around her story of redemption.
Should Rousey and Holm both win, in the late fall or winter of 2016, the rematch would be even bigger. And it would be better having given Rousey the most time possible to allow her to address the holes in her game before trying to defeat the new champion.
The big risk in waiting is if Rousey loses, not Holm. If Holm loses, she is still “the one that knocked out Ronda Rousey” in the eyes of most fans, and a rematch down the line would still do solid numbers. There are a multitude of favorable matchups for Rousey to take to rebuild her image and confidence before trying to reclaim her title.
The UFC is leaving money on the table by rushing this rematch. There is most definitely validity to capitalizing on this fight as soon as possible, but they cannot see the forest through the trees on this matter.
The risk vs. reward factor for the Holm-Rousey rematch tips in favor of the reward for waiting. The UFC is just trigger-happy.
If the UFC would roll the dice, they could come out with another big year at the bank. And the fans would also get a better fight out of the rematch.
