Oddsmaker Joey Oddessa thinks Jon Jones an undeserving favorite, Conor McGregor overpriced

To sum up his feelings about a trio of high-profile fights on the UFC’s schedule, MMAjunkie oddsmaker Joey Odessa thinks Anderson Silva is the right price, Conor McGregor is overpriced, and Daniel Cormier should be the favorite.

As announced on Wednesday by the UFC, Silva (33-6 MMA, 16-2 UFC) meets Nick Diaz (26-9 MMA, 7-6 UFC) in the headliner of UFC 183 on Jan. 31 in Las Vegas. Three months earlier in Sin City, featherweight McGregor meets Dustin Poirier at UFC 178 on Sept. 27, and that card is headlined by a light heavyweight title bout between challenger Cormier (15-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) and champ Jon Jones (20-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC).

Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz

While not necessarily relevant in the middleweight division in which it will be contested, Silva vs. Diaz is expected to do huge business for the UFC. And it’s generally an intriguing bout, with both fighters coming from layoffs due to injury and retirement, respectively. Silva, a masterful striker, clashes with the pressured-driven boxing of Diaz.

Silva already is a 3-to-1 favorite in current betting lines at -360 to Diaz’s +270. Odessa thinks that’s on target, no matter what people in the 209 area code might say.

“Anything under -200 (for Silva) is stealing,” Odessa said. “Diaz has a huge following, but if you really look back at who they fought, if we said Weidman vs. Diaz, we would laugh about that. I don’t see Nick beating Anderson unless Anderson just does not show up and he wants to retire. The line right now indicates (Silva will win); it’s up to -450 (in Las Vegas). I saw it open up at -240. If you were to take the comeback on it, you’d get like +350 on Nick Diaz.

Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier

Dominant champ Jones tries to notch his eighth defense of his light heavyweight belt when he meets Cormier, who steps in for the injured Alexander Gustafsson on two months’ notice.

Cormier’s undefeated record and Olympic wrestling pedigree have renewed assessments that Jones is in for a more taxing challenge this time around despite the one-sided nature of his title defenses, save for a UFC 165 meeting with Gustafsson.

The current champ is nearly a 2-to-1 favorite at -185 to Cormier’s +150, which reflects the competitiveness expected of the matchup. Odessa, however, thinks the favorite should be the challenger.

“I think Cormier is going to beat him,” he said. “I saw (Jones) open at -185, and I couldn’t believe Jones was favored that high. It went as high as -225. I don’t think Jones has ever fought anybody like Cormier. The only way Cormier loses this fight is if they stop it on a cut. Cormier is a bully; he’s like Tim Boetsch times 100 with Olympic-caliber wrestling. Not to compare freestyle and (Greco-Roman) wrestling, because that’s a debate in an of itself, but he ragdolled Dan Henderson. He abused him.

“I think Cormier can stop Jones. I think he can swell (Jones) up. Numbers-wise, they’re probably going to bet Jones because of the preview shows are going to do a lot of justice for Jones and people are going to look at Cormier and say, ‘Look at the physique on this guy,’ (as opposed to) Jon Jones. Nike, physique, (he’s) crushing guys, he’s arguably pound-for-pound the best.”

“Lucas Brown was an undefeated heavyweight (boxer); Daniel knocked him out in an MMA bout in his third MMA bout, and this is the guy that they’re pitching as the next great heavyweight. Look who Dan’s beat. He won that (Strikeforce) grand prix; he abused (Josh) Barnett. One thing a lot of people don’t know is he beat Dean Morrison in the Olympic trials, and Dean is very similarly built to Jon Jones. I’m going to bet Cormier, and I’m going to bet a significant chunk on him.”

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier

Irish sensation McGregor (15-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is on fire after beating Diego Brandao in his native Dublin at this past month’s UFC Fight Night 46. The 26-year-old fighter now owns three straight wins, a comparably small number of wins for someone with so much promotional weight behind him. Of course, McGregor’s own promotional skills are by in large responsible for that, but the veteran Poirier (16-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC) threatens to be his toughest test to date.

Poirier also rides a three-fight win streak and boasts 10 total fights in the octagon. His only losses have come to current and former title contenders Cub Swanson and Chan Sung Jung. And yet, McGregor also is nearly a 2-to-1 favorite at -190 to Poirier’s +155.

Like many who’ve eyed McGregor’s rise, Odessa thinks the Irish fighter is getting a little too much credit, even if he is a favorite.

“Poirier can’t be the favorite, even though you can make a strong case for him winning. Whether McGregor beats him or not, I’m not completely sold on McGregor. He did beat Brandao, but that was one of those cards where the (fighters) were so overwhelmed (by the environment). The venue has such a huge impact.

“Poirier can win this fight, but right now, McGregor is the favorite. I don’t know if it was an accidental line error or they did it just for the press, but for me, the U.K.’s not full of great boxers. If his hands were that great, I do believe somebody would have scooped him up a lot earlier to have him box before he went into MMA. We haven’t seen anything significant from McGregor on the ground. It’s not like a submission machine. Poirier is a little more well-rounded. Whether that translates to a decision, or whether he can take a shot from (McGregor), that’s what it’s going to boil down to.

“The market will go up. It will be more McGregor. And then on post, you’re going to see when the limits get high, the number is going to come back down. It’s the same with Cormier. If Cormier drops too soon and it gets down to pick ‘em, you’re going to see Jon Jones money late. With McGregor, they’re going to pound him in sports pubs in the U.K. like there’s no tomorrow. In the last two bout, they put it in a position where you couldn’t even lay the favorite. And that’s what’s going to start happening now. I think if they promote it the way they’re going to promote it, Poirier is going to be an even bigger underdog and the money that comes in on Poirier late, it’s going to be off the screen. Like, it will come it right about the time the bout starts. That’s when you’ll see bookies trying to get the buyback on the underdog.”

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