On 17 August, one of the most enigmatic strikers to enter the UFC octagon will look to make his way back to the middleweight title. A long-simmering rivalry between Israel Adesanya and the reigning champion, Dricus du Plessis, will come to a head at the RAC Arena in Perth.
Now 35 years old, Adesanya’s record is very impressive. At 24-3, it took nearly a decade for a professional fighter to solve the Nigerian-born New Zealander on the mat. Still, from the 2021 loss to Jan Błachowicz, ‘The Last Stylebender,’ has gone 4-3, avenging his loss to Alex Pereira.
His last outing, in September 2023, marked his third career loss, coming by way of a unanimous decision to Sean Strickland. Adding to the intrigue here, Du Plessis’ form reads as a whole stack of wins punctuated by a split decision triumph over Strickland in January 2024. Despite this, many are siding with an Adesanya comeback.
UFC 290 on 8 July, 2023, marks what looks to be the catalyst for this MMA rivalry. Following Du Plessis’ triumph over Robert Whittaker by TKO, and after Adesanya’s revenge over Pereira at UFC 287, the Lagos native stepped into the octagon. In a heated exchange, Adesanya seemed to be insinuating that Du Plessis isn’t African.
Since then, Adesanya has lost a fight and Du Plessis has continued to go undefeated and take the crown once donned by the challenger. Despite this, as of 29 July, the South African isn’t the favourite in the UFC betting. Somewhat bizarrely, Du Plessis sits out at 11/10, while Adesanya is at 8/11 to win the co-main event.
This closeness in the odds speaks to the challenge ahead for both fighters. Adesanya’s legacy certainly helps to put him ahead of Du Plessis, with his potential to suddenly turn a fight around being well documented. On the flip side, speaking to MMA Junkie, Robert Whittaker is siding with the ZA native.
Uniquely, Whittaker has been in the ring with both Adesanya and Du Plessis, and was on the losing side of both outings. On 12 February 2022, he embarked on his second headline meet with Adesanya, this time losing by UD rather than KO via punches – as he did on 5 October 2019.
Whittaker got back on track by defeating Marvin Vettori at UFC Fight Night 209, but then met another incredibly talented middleweight. Against Du Plessis, while he did get some good strikes in, Whittaker didn’t exactly put in a career-best showing. He’s since come out and said that his UFC 290 showing was one of his worst.
Even with these results and Whittaker’s opinion on them, he sees the reigning champion as the favourite. Much of this, he says, boils down to how they handled Strickland. Du Plessis’ pressure going forward and an “awkward, unorthodox style” helped him win the middleweight crown.
A similar kind of approach is why Strickland was able to get the better of Adesanya when they rumbled at UFC 293. In both fights, Strickland went the distance, but Du Plessis was able to impress the judges enough to win the split. Adesanya lost by unanimous decision. So, it makes sense to see this divide and back the South African.
Given how he overcame Adesanya, many expected Strickland to defeat Du Plessis. The odds were on the side of the then-champion, and to his credit, the recently dethroned fighter did call who would become the next opponent as his “official pick” for the fight. He was, as we now know, correct, and it was interesting to see why.
In the interview relayed by Sports Illustrated on 17 January, he cited Strickland’s “underrated” jab as likely forcing Du Plessis from his stand-up fighting in the first round into a more grapple-centric approach. In the end, Strickland landed 183 strikes to his opponent’s 140, while the South African landed six takedowns of 11 attempts without reply.
When Adesanya squared off against Strickland it was, predictably, a strike-fest. Between the two, over 220 significant strikes were thrown, and the American landed the only knockdown of the bout. Despite being so reliant on the stand-up game, the NZ-based fighter is yet to lose via a takedown.
Two UDs and Pereira’s late fifth-round barrage against the cage at UFC 281 mark his only three losses. Whenever a striker rises up the ranks, most critics will wait for a talented wrestler to come along, apply pressure, and take the fight to the ground to seal the victory. Adesanya is yet to meet a takedown artist capable of ousting his style.
Arguably the most impressive aspect of Adesanya’s fighting style is his footwork. He’s incredibly fleet-footed, both in his offensive and defensive manoeuvres. If he’s got space behind him, the Lagos-born striker is incredibly hard to catch. Naturally, this is helped by the middleweight’s lanky 6’4’’ frame.
As it stands, his takedown defence holds at a hefty 78 per cent in the UFC. Trying for takedowns and submissions is incredibly rare for him, but he’s learned enough from the other side to stave off the best wrestlers he’s faced. The power-packed 6’0’’ Du Plessis isn’t a bad grappler himself.
13 per cent of his significant strikes come while on the ground, and ten per cent are while he has his opponent in a clinch, and he’ll average three takedowns per 15 minutes for a 52 per cent accuracy. For some, this would be the angle of approach to take out a slick striker like Adesanya, but his upcoming opponent is very good at setting traps to foil takedown attempts.
Du Plessis’ losses – one in KSW and another in EFC – have come via a punches KO and a guillotine choke. Against Adesanya, the South African would seem primed and ready to trade punches standing, at least in the early rounds.
Now, Adesanya is a strike-happy fighter. In his UFC career, he’s tried 2,386 significant strikes and hit 1,148, going for an average of 3.93 per minute. Du Plessis, with a much smaller sample of 1,038 attempted and 520 landed, is averaging 6.49 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also absorbed 4.77 per minute.
Du Plessis is a very tough contender who uses his tricky, unorthodox style to work unexpected angles and get past even some of the more defensively stout fighters. Adesanya, worn down by the battle prior, was deciphered by Strickland with the cage to his back; his guard was left wanting as his foe pressed forward.
The path to victory for Du Plessis would seemingly be to take away space Adesanya has behind him, pressure him to the fences, and trade punches. Adesanya’s approach is to rely on his defensive footwork and keep out of range while peppering the strikes that can build to better openings later in the bout.
Helping to send hype in the stands through the roof, before Du Plessis and Adesanya UFC 305 will stage the flyweight fight between New Zealander Kai Kara-France and Australian Steve Erceg. Ranked fourth and ninth by the UFC, respectively, it should be quite the battle.
Further down the card, Mateusz Gamrot looks to continue to fly up the lightweight rankings in a scrap with another Kiwi, this time Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker. Riding a two-win streak of his own, Hooker always brings his game, but Gamrot has collected three very impressive wins on the bounce to get to fifth in the rankings.
Plus, we’ll be getting a heavyweight clash! Australia’s own Tai ‘Bam Bam’ Tuivasa will look to defend his home turf and higher ranking in a battle with Jairzinho ‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik. Drawing from their last weigh-ins, the two combine for over 500 lbs with 26 knockouts from 28 wins. Tuivasa looks to end a gruelling four-fight skid.
In the women’s flyweight division, Scottish striker Casey O’Neill will be going all-out to keep a hold on her top-15 ranking in the UFC. The 26-year-old was imperious in her first four UFC outings, winning all four bouts between February 2021 and February 2022.
Then, she lost by UD to Jennifer Maia in March 2023 at UFC 286, followed by an armbar submission at UFC 296. Fighting on a Leon Edwards-headlined card didn’t prove lucky, with her last win coming during the Adesanya vs Whittaker 2 event. In her way is Luana Santos, who’s won all three of her UFC fights, two within the first round.
UFC 305 looks to have the makings of several superb fights over in Perth. Leaning on Australian and New Zealand-based fighters should get the crowd going early on in the main card before the big grudge match to finish the night.
Given his flair and the fandom that’s joined his corner since dazzling in the UFC, many are hoping that Adesanya gets the belt back by the end of the main event. The odds lean towards an Adesanya win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Du Plessis, once again, upset the odds.