The rise in popularity of mixed martial arts has led to the sport also becoming a popular sport to bet on, with fans and seasoned gamblers placing their bets on big fight nights throughout the year.
For some, it’s a way to get them more invested in the action inside the cage, while for others it’s a chance to win money using their personal knowledge of the sport and its athletes.
For those looking to bet on fights, it’s always worth considering just how relevant being a betting favourite actually is when it comes to the final result on fight night.
One big thing to consider at the top level of MMA, especially in the UFC, is that fights are generally very well matched. Unlike pro boxing, where rising stars are given journeyman opposition to pad their record and build their interest over a number of fights, UFC fights are invariably stern tests of both fighters’ credentials. One may carry better form, or more experience, but the fights are usually pretty closely matched.
The first thing to take into account when considering betting on MMA is that the sport is unpredictable. Ultimately, mixed martial arts bouts, especially fights at the highest level, can be decided by the smallest of factors. A fighter can dominate a fight almost from bell to bell, but one perfectly-timed shot by his opponent can turn the fight on its head.
A perfect example of this is the battle for the undisputed UFC welterweight title at UFC 276 in Salt Lake City in 2023. After a competitive opening round, Kamaru Usman completely dominated Leon Edwards through the rest of the fight, until Edwards landed a head kick from the gods to knock out Usman and shock the world.
That fight is far from an exception. Chris Weidman was largely unfancied when he challenged the legendary Anderson Silva at UFC 162, but he turned the MMA world upside down by knocking out “The Spider” in the second round to capture the UFC middleweight title. Holly Holm was a huge underdog against Ronda Rousey at UFC 193, and she outclassed Rousey before knocking her out cold with a stunning head kick to win the UFC women’s bantamweight crown. And, in arguably the biggest shock in UFC history, Matt Serra stunned the great Georges St-Pierre to win the UFC welterweight title at UFC 69.
These are high-profile examples of fighters upsetting the odds to win big inside the UFC’s Octagon, but surprise results and upset wins happen virtually every week. The trick with MMA betting is to try to find them before they happen.
In each of the examples above, the odds would have set the respective victors as huge underdogs. And in each case, the defending champion was well established and dominant in their respective weight class. The big odds on the challengers not only reflected the strength of the champion, they also highlighted the need for bookies to stimulate betting action.
Sometimes the odds will look a little skewed, with an underdog’s odds looking too wide, or a champion’s odds looking too stingy. That’s done on purpose to encourage bettors to back the underdog and help “balance the books” for the betting sites and sportsbooks. The odds are set to try to ensure that the bookies come out with a profit, regardless of who wins, and if it looks like one side of the matchup is getting a little too much interest, the bookies’ traders will change the odds in a bid to address it.
Such is the nature of MMA, the success rate of betting favourites fluctuates from event to event throughout the year. But MMA stats and rankings website Fight Matrix conducted a study of more than 500 UFC fights, and found that the betting favourites won 65 percent of the time.
That’s a solid rate that compares with similar studies in other sports, including the NFL and the EPL, but it also shows that there’s plenty of opportunity for smart bettors to find the right balance by picking the right favourites, while looking out for the underdogs in fights where their odds suggest a smaller probability of victory than reality.
As a bettor, the key is to do your research, assess trusted sources of MMA betting advice, and look for situations when the odds of your chosen winner are in your favour. For those bettors across the pond to look for certified sports bookmakers in the UK, as these differ from the shops in the US.