UFC 223 co-main breakdown: Does Rose Namajunas simply have Joanna Jedrzejczyk's number?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 223’s top bouts. Today we look at the co-main event.

UFC 223 takes place Saturday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., and airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

• UFC 223 main-event breakdown: How can Max Holloway beat Khabib Nurmagomedov?

Rose Namajunas (7-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC)

Rose Namajunas finishes Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217. (USA TODAY Sports)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5? Age: 25 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65?
• Last fight: TKO win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Nov 4, 2017)
• Camp: 303 Training Center (Denver, CO.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 1 KO victory
+ 5 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for/floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Explosive hips

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk during UFC 217. (USA TODAY Sports)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6? Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5?
• Last fight: TKO loss to Rose Namajunas (Nov. 4, 2017)
• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good getup technique/urgency

Summary:

The co-main event in Brooklyn features a rematch between Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the strawweight title.

Last November, both fighters met in New York for their first encounter.

Jedrzejczyk, who was champion at the time, came in as confidently as ever being that her dominant reign was about to break the record of Ronda Rousey’s. Whereas Namajunas, who remained cryptically calm and collected throughout fight week, only gave the taunting Jedrzejczyk a slight shove at the last staredown before the opening bell.

Although Namjunas’ reaction may have been a cause for concern at that moment, the fight told a different story.

Coming out of the gates with dialed-in sense about herself, Namajunas got right to work with feints, something that was crucial for her success against Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217. Using fakes and footwork to force reactions, Namajunas was able to freeze up space and draw out a key tell from Jedrzejczyk.

Biting on Namajunas’ feints (likely anticipating her patented jab), Jedrzejczyk extended her hand out to parry, leaving her open for the left hook. Subsequently, Namajunas faked her usual one-two in a beautiful flow that allowed her to drop the then-champion just minutes into the first round with a slick left hook.

Jedrzejczyk valiantly fought her way back up, but she was probably on auto-pilot as her defensive triggers began to repeat with a delay. And after hitting a variation of the same feinting left-hook flow as before, Namajunas became the new UFC strawweight champion.

Speculation about Jedrzejczyk’s botched weight cut aside, the former champ will still need to respect the striking prowess of Namajunas.

Namajunas’ leg dexterity and kicking abilities are still well-intact,
and her fundamentals have improved exponentially under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman. Using her length, Namajunas wields an accurate jab that she uses well to gauge risk versus reward in regards to following up or countering.

The battle of the jab gets even more interesting when looking at Jedrzejcyk – who is, of course, the other top practitioner of the jab at 115 pounds.

Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of Jedrzejczyk’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career. Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk also feared the threat of the takedown – subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first title defense in the UFC.

Now, showing the competency and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, Jedrzejczyk will utilize her jab more for setups rather than safety, attaching her fair share of well-placed leg kicks to punctuate her presence. That said, I am not sure how often (especially early), the former champion will throw kicks given Namajunas’ ability to counter.

Regardless of the each fighter’s choices on the feet, I feel that the clinch could play a strong role in this rematch.

Despite the dynamic of the matchup making Namajunas dangerous here, Jedrzejczyk is arguably the more technical fighter within these small spaces.

Whether she is fighting inside the clinch or free to operate on the feet, seldom will you see Jedrzejczyk out of position or off balance. Jedrzejczyk is also diligent when it comes to her head position in close, something that helps the Polish fighter disrupt her opponent’s grappling efforts, as well as makes her more difficult to hit.

Assisting in this makeshift defensive wall is her subtle but effective forearm framing. When getting ready to break off and strike, Jedrzejczyk will replace her forehead position with her forearms, creating just enough space for destructive short-elbows to follow.

Considering the weather that Namajunas was subject to inside of the clinch with Koralina Kowalkiewicz, we could see the champion under heavy fire if her takedown efforts fail to find success against Jedrzejczyk.

However, if Namajunas can ground her Polish counterpart, then we could see this fight’s temperature take a dramatic turn.

After a crushing loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling abilities, displaying that she had more to offer than just opportunistic submissions off of her back.

Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began taking down her counterparts, exposing them to submissions underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions. A superb back-taker, the champion has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent in transit.

Given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has found the back, this will undoubtedly be the Jedrzejczyk’s worst-case scenario. Luckily for the Pole, she demonstrates specific techniques that should help her prevent that from happening.

Not only does Jedrzejczyk do well with using the fence to stand safely, but she also favors the single-leg getup, a technique that I believe is underutilized in MMA.

Whether Jedrzejczyk ends up on the floor via full-guard or side control, she always shrimps to half-guard so that she can swim inside for a single-leg grasp. From here, the former champion will use the leverage created from this grip in a similar spirit to an underhook getup.

Akin to Demian Maia’s half-guard series, Jedrzejczyk keeps her single-leg grasp low, which protects her from your typical guillotine or D’arce choke counters. But, unlike Maia, Jedrzejczyk will use this leverage to stand and separate rather than re-wrestle, something that should serve her well in this fight.

The oddsmakers seem just as torn as I do on this one, listing Jedrzejczyk -120 and Namajunas +100 as of this writing.

For me, this is one of those fights where the mental intangibles feel like they are weighing more than the physical skills that we know about on paper – which are closer than what the odds represented in their first meeting.

There’s also the question of Jedrzejcyk’s last weight cut.

I, for one, do not doubt that – despite her best efforts – Jedrzejczyk had a bad weight cut. And though that could have certainly contributed to ill-effects on fight night, I think that Jedrzejczyk’s attitude before and since that fight may speak louder in regards to potential flags to look for in their second meeting.

For that reason, I will side with Namajunas who, when this is all said and done, may end up showing us that she has Jedrzejczyk’s number. I see the champion utilizing her previously established striking threats from the first fight, coupled with her ever-growing wrestling ability to frustrate Jedrzejczyk, forcing a scenario that produces a finish before the final bell.

Official pick: Namajunas inside the distance

For more on UFC 223, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.