Will Chandler showdown by McGregor's last UFC hurrah?

Finally, there is a date in the diary, and Conor McGregor is set to make his UFC comeback against Michael Chandler on Saturday, 29th June. The will he won’t he saga has dragged on for months now. But in mid-April, the UFC announced the fight will take place on the pay-per-view card at UFC 309 in Las Vegas.

Conor McGregor will face Michael Chandler at UFC 303 on June 29 in Las Vegas, Dana White announced. pic.twitter.com/BU7pmpMRlf

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) April 14, 2024

The showdown will be the first time McGregor has fought inside the octagon since he lost his trilogy fight to Dustin Poirier in July 2021. That was only the Irishman’s third fight since his defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018, meaning that when he finally steps back into the octagon at the end of June, it will only be his fourth contest in over five and a half years.

Who is the favourite to win the McGregor vs Chandler fight?

The opening betting on both men shows the bookmakers are finding it difficult to call a winner. The odds will change, but at the moment the two men are both at 9/10 with Paddy Power Sports online. The use of a bet calculator is recommended to work out any potential winnings on the fight.

In the early days after a fight is confirmed, bookmakers will only usually have outright winner odds available. Then, in the last few days before the fight, more betting markets like the method of victory become available.

Expect the odds on McGregor vs Chandler to flip one way and then the other. Especially if negative news leaks out about training camps. And with McGregor so unpredictable, he could do anything between now and the end of June that could see the odds turn full circle.

Conor McGregor Career

Now let’s take a look at the two fighters' careers, starting with McGregor.

In MMA, he has a 22-6 record. McGregor is a legend of the sport. He is the former Featherweight and Lightweight champion and the first UFC fighter to hold two championship belts simultaneously in two different weights.

McGregor’s fights tend to end early, with 19 of his 22 victories coming by knockout. He has won once by submission and twice by decision.

McGregor is more of a vertical fighter, as shown by his knockout record. To further underline this point, four of his six defeats have come by submission, showing he is more vulnerable when the fight gets taken to the ground.

His other two defeats were by knockouts to Poirier and in his last two contests. Although, in fairness to McGregor, one was a TKO due to a broken leg.

In his most recent five fights, McGregor has won two and lost three. Making it even harder to predict what to expect from McGregor, those five fights have spanned nearly eight years.

Michael Chandler Career

Michael Chandler has a similar career record to McGregor. The 38-year-old American is 23-8. Of his 23 wins, 11 have come by knockout, seven by submission, and five by decision.

Chandler is a more versatile fighter. He is a former wrestler, giving him an advantage over McGregor on the mat. His 11 KO wins show he can fight vertically as well. But he would be advised against getting into a pure fistfight with his Irish opponent.

Out of Chandler’s eight losses, he has lost by KO on four occasions, twice by decision and once by submission.

A veteran of Bellator, only five of Chandler’s career fights have taken place in the UFC. His first contest within the organisation was against Dan Hooker in January 2021 at UFC 257. Chandler won by TKO.

He followed that up with a TKO loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 262 and a unanimous points decision defeat to Justin Gaethje at UFC 268 in November 2021.

#UFC274 Official Result: Michael Chandler (@MikeChandlerMMA) def Tony Ferguson by knockout, Round 2, 0:17.

All Fight Results ⬇️:

— UFC News (@UFCNews) May 8, 2022

Chandler then registered his second UFC win over Tony Ferguson at UFC 274, which was followed by another loss, this time to Dustin Poirier at UFC 281. The November 2022 defeat was his last time in the octagon.

Will McGregor even enter the Octagon in June?

The talk about this fight seems to have gone on forever. Conor McGregor has become a master of the art of keeping his name in the media.

Some news is good, plenty bad. It seems the Irishman lives by the traditional old saying that there is no such thing as bad publicity.

And in McGregor’s case, it seems to be true. He is reported to have made a fortune from the 2017 boxing fight against Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather. But that seems to almost pale into insignificance when compared to the amount of money the Irishman is reported to have made selling stakes in his whiskey and stout brands.

In short, McGregor doesn’t need to step into the octagon for money. So will he even make it there?

McGregor just needs publicity. If he fights, he gets publicity. It will arguably be the biggest UFC fight ever. But if he doesn’t fight, he has still won, as he has kept his name in the limelight and has received plenty of free media attention, where he openly promotes his drink brands.

Such is the nature of McGregor's social media posts in recent weeks and months, it's been hard to tell whether he is a drinks salesman or an athlete.

Regardless, McGregor can give off the impression that his priorities lie elsewhere.

Can Chandler shut out the noise?

Michael Chandler himself hasn’t been in the octagon since November 2022. Part of the reason for the American’s hiatus is he was waiting for this fight.

Before the fight against McGregor was officially announced, Michael Chandler was quoted as saying he was preparing for the bout. But a fight with McGregor will come with a lot of added attention. All of which could present challenges for Chandler.

Conor McGregor has by and large ignored Chandler in the past. Now the fight has been announced, the Irishman has had to change his tune. McGregor has been making statements about the weight the fight will take place at. And he has also been teasing Chandler for months.

The former two-weight champion has essentially been trying to establish superiority over Chandler in the media. Something he was renowned for in his heyday.

Whether Chandler can deal with this could determine the outcome of the fight. He has to either try and shut out the noise or use it positively.

It's not all negative for Chandler, though. He will be 38 when the two men meet. He is in the latter stages of his career. And he knows this is likely to be the biggest payday of his time in the UFC.

Assuming the fight takes place, Chandler will be a winner, no matter what the final result. He is getting worldwide attention, and inside and outside of the UFC, he will become an even bigger name.

Finally, if it is the last fight of his career, it would be great to go out with a win over one of the sport’s most iconic figures.

Where will the fight be won?

We’ve already established that McGregor is more of a boxer, and Chandler is a more all-round fighter. But recently we've seen Chandler stand trade with Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Justin Gaethje. The three fights ended in defeat. So will he decide to employ those tactics again?

This is where McGregor’s mental warfare could be key to the final outcome of the contest. The former Featherweight and Lightweight Champion would prefer a stand-up fistfight, and he will try and goad Chandler into granting his wish.

That gives McGregor a chance. But after such a lengthy time outside of the octagon, and with less than a handful of fights since 2016, what sort of McGregor will turn up?

He looks great in all the training videos he publishes. But they are publicity stunts. And it remains to be seen how seriously they can be taken.

There is little to no chance the McGregor that turns up will be anything like the beast that dominated the promotion between 2013 and 2016. Those days are simply gone. The question is, will the McGregor who turns up be good enough to defeat Chandler?

Final thoughts

Conor McGregor seems to be constantly focused on his social media and growing his alcohol brands. Can he focus enough on the fight to be good enough to defeat Chandler? If he has a fully committed fight camp, he will have a chance. If he doesn't, he will probably lose.

After all, both men are in the last throes of their careers, so a fully fit and focused McGregor can surely be as good as Chandler if both men are at their respective best.

McGregor will push his luck. He will try and break down his opponent mentally. It might be enough to give him the edge on the night. But it might not. Chandler will almost certainly know what is coming. It’s a matter of whether he can handle it or not.

Either way, it could well be the final time that ‘Notorious’ steps inside the octagon to fight. All his bouts are events. The best days are gone. But the next few weeks are likely to be entertaining in the build-up, no matter what happens on fight night.

So let's just sit back and enjoy the ride for one last time.